A Mediterranean centric Axis strategy?

[Cook]

I love these sorts of scenarios, which basically come down to "what would happen if Hitler did everything right, and the Allies do everything wrong, or nothing at all?"

As far as Turkey is concerned, there is little the British could do; they were stretched to the limit in the Mediterranean as it was and could have done very little in Anatolia. Turkey joining the Axis was a constant nightmare of Churchill’s, and the British diplomatic corps did everything they could to prevent it.

‘The Allies doing everything wrong or nothing at all’ isn’t far off the mark of what they did do through to mid-1942.

 

[Snake Featherston]

If the Germans devote resources to that kind of war, this helps smooth the way for a successful Soviet attack on the Germans in 1942-3. War against the UK in its Mediterranean stomping grounds is not like the Eastern Front, and the Germans never had any means to easily shift gears in terms of their war production.

 

[Catspoke]

If the Germans devote resources to that kind of war, this helps smooth the way for a successful Soviet attack on the Germans in 1942-3. War against the UK in its Mediterranean stomping grounds is not like the Eastern Front, and the Germans never had any means to easily shift gears in terms of their war production.

It seems a pretty gutsy move for the Soviets to attack Germany without an Allied second front on the ground in Europe someplace. Germany's army would have a fearsome reputation based on France 40 and Russias own WW1 experience. I can see the Russian's leveraging their growing military strength to change the nature of economic agreements in their favor, to finish up the Finalnd job or to browbeat the Turks into opening up the Straits to their warships, or maybe even extracting concessions out of the Japanese. It wouldn't be a great patriotic war but an agression job, perhaps the masses wouldn't be so motivated. Better to wait until Germany is really on the ropes and then move in and pick up stuff for cheap.

 

[Julian]

It's almost certain that Stalin intended to betray Nazi Germany in 1942, when the Red Army would have finished the reforms started by Timoshenko in 1940. Offensive plans had already been drawn up for a future attack (And contrary to the Icebreaker Theory the attack wasn't going to be in 1941) and were approved by Stalin.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

If Turkey were opened up to Axis forces, I could also see Hitler start to plan to betray Stalin. As stated previously, his bombers would be in striking range of Soviet oilfields, which would be a tempting target. Stalin would realize this, and Hitler would probably know that Stalin got it as well, which means Turkey entering the war would probably start a pretty short countdown clock til when the U.S.S.R enters the war.

 

[Julian]

If Turkey were opened up to Axis forces, I could also see Hitler start to plan to betray Stalin. As stated previously, his bombers would be in striking range of Soviet oilfields, which would be a tempting target. Stalin would realize this, and Hitler would probably know that Stalin got it as well, which means Turkey entering the war would probably start a pretty short countdown clock til when the U.S.S.R enters the war.

German strategic bombing capability was so nonexistent that they couldn't deal permanent damage even when they had total air superiority. And this is against clusters of Soviet factories in Gorky and such, not a series of oil fields and refineries spread out over several miles and probably well camouflaged after the first few attacks. The Germans will still be attacking from pretty far away and from airbases which won't be well supplied or developed.

 

[Catspoke]

It's almost certain that Stalin intended to betray Nazi Germany in 1942, when the Red Army would have finished the reforms started by Timoshenko in 1940. Offensive plans had already been drawn up for a future attack (And contrary to the Icebreaker Theory the attack wasn't going to be in 1941) and were approved by Stalin.

I can see plans being drawn up, and at that point Stalin wouldn't be worried so much about provoking a German invasion. but would a 1942 Soviet Invasion have the same kind of strength as the June 1944+ army without Lend-Lease and the "great patriotic war" and all the things that get fixed actually fighting. Less of the country is trashed for sure but even if it was 1944 army strong. The Germans would be in much better shape too without a second front and the OTL attrition and the Rummanians, Hungarians and Slovakians and whomever else is willing would fight much harder too. I can't see Stalin taking those risks until there is a major second front in Europe.

 

[Snake Featherston]

It seems a pretty gutsy move for the Soviets to attack Germany without an Allied second front on the ground in Europe someplace. Germany's army would have a fearsome reputation based on France 40 and Russias own WW1 experience. I can see the Russian's leveraging their growing military strength to change the nature of economic agreements in their favor, to finish up the Finalnd job or to browbeat the Turks into opening up the Straits to their warships, or maybe even extracting concessions out of the Japanese. It wouldn't be a great patriotic war but an agression job, perhaps the masses wouldn't be so motivated. Better to wait until Germany is really on the ropes and then move in and pick up stuff for cheap.

Actually it's not in this case. To develop the ability to fight an amphibious-aerial war in the Mediterranean with the limited means available to the German war economy from Hitler's attempt to run a war on a peacetime footing means the Germans will be extraordinarily prepared for the wrong kind of war when the Soviets use an army with good leadership and an enormous amount of T-34s and Stalin organs to capture Ploesti and then bulldoze their way to Berlin. The Germans will be geared for a WAllies style war here, and their tactical obsession means any Soviet offensive will be a true Russian steamroller.

 

[Julian]

I can see plans being drawn up, and at that point Stalin wouldn't be worried so much about provoking a German invasion. but would a 1942 Soviet Invasion have the same kind of strength as the June 1944+ army without Lend-Lease and the "great patriotic war" and all the things that get fixed actually fighting. Less of the country is trashed for sure but even if it was 1944 army strong. The Germans would be in much better shape too without a second front and the OTL attrition and the Rummanians, Hungarians and Slovakians and whomever else is willing would fight much harder too. I can't see Stalin taking those risks until there is a major second front in Europe.

Nope, the Red Army would have torn the Wehrmacht apart without of a problem. Timoshenko's reforms would have seen much larger numbers of aircraft and vehicles, all modern, deployed. Imagine the 1941 Red Army, then double it, and then fully staff and modernize its forces. The Wehrmacht would essentially be facing the 1944 Red Army with several times more manpower and industrial capacity backing it up. The T-34 and KV-1 were only deployed in limited numbers in early 1941 and still ate every German vehicle they encountered alive. In 1942 Germany would essentially be using the same vehicles. The only reason the Soviet will need to stop will be to reorganize their supply lines for their next burst forward.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

Actually it's not in this case. To develop the ability to fight an amphibious-aerial war in the Mediterranean with the limited means available to the German war economy from Hitler's attempt to run a war on a peacetime footing means the Germans will be extraordinarily prepared for the wrong kind of war when the Soviets use an army with good leadership and an enormous amount of T-34s and Stalin organs to capture Ploesti and then bulldoze their way to Berlin. The Germans will be geared for a WAllies style war here, and their tactical obsession means any Soviet offensive will be a true Russian steamroller.

That assumes that they go for the amphibious war option. If Turkey is in the war, that won't be as necessary, and it would give the Germans great position of they decide to strike the Soviets first. I doubt that they'd be enormously successful and take Stalingrad, but it could pull forces away from other fronts.

 

[Julian]

That assumes that they go for the amphibious war option. If Turkey is in the war, that won't be as necessary, and it would give the Germans great position of they decide to strike the Soviets first. I doubt that they'd be enormously successful and take Stalingrad, but it could pull forces away from other fronts.

Turkey lacks the logistics to support large scale German forces. Neither does the Caucasus.

 

[Snake Featherston]

That assumes that they go for the amphibious war option. If Turkey is in the war, that won't be as necessary, and it would give the Germans great position of they decide to strike the Soviets first. I doubt that they'd be enormously successful and take Stalingrad, but it could pull forces away from other fronts.

If Turkey gives Germany another Italy the Soviets are simply going to encourage the Germans to fight the war they have no preparation for and then ram a Zweihander through them the moment opportunity presents itself.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Given the size and scope of the Turkish military in 1941 God help the German units dependent on Turkish logisitics...

 

[Flayer]

Nope, the Red Army would have torn the Wehrmacht apart without of a problem. Timoshenko's reforms would have seen much larger numbers of aircraft and vehicles, all modern, deployed. Imagine the 1941 Red Army, then double it, and then fully staff and modernize its forces. The Wehrmacht would essentially be facing the 1944 Red Army with several times more manpower and industrial capacity backing it up. The T-34 and KV-1 were only deployed in limited numbers in early 1941 and still ate every German vehicle they encountered alive. In 1942 Germany would essentially be using the same vehicles. The only reason the Soviet will need to stop will be to reorganize their supply lines for their next burst forward.

1944 army without combat experience, without any of the developments in tactics they gained fighting the Germans, and without the bad generals being weeded out and good ones promoted as completely as they were by war. Also, no Lend-Lease aid for their logistics.

 

[Snake Featherston]

1944 army without combat experience, without any of the developments in tactics they gained fighting the Germans, and without the bad generals being weeded out and good ones promoted as completely as they were by war. Also, no Lend-Lease aid for their logistics.

Actually with the Soviet reforms those people would have been weeded out more thoroughly or at least neutralized. In the summer of 1941 simple survival took precedence over finishing that process. In 1942 their weaponry is better and their logistics aren't going to be impaired by the 1941 catastrophe. When their attack starts, the Germans will have a miracle in simply gaining initiative against them, let alone coming close to inflicting a defeat of the Minsk sort, let alone Kiev.

 

[Flayer]

Actually with the Soviet reforms those people would have been weeded out more thoroughly or at least neutralized. In the summer of 1941 simple survival took precedence over finishing that process. In 1942 their weaponry is better and their logistics aren't going to be impaired by the 1941 catastrophe. When their attack starts, the Germans will have a miracle in simply gaining initiative against them, let alone coming close to inflicting a defeat of the Minsk sort, let alone Kiev.

I don't see Kiev or Minsk happening but I can see them walking into a few Third Battles of Kharkov.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I don't see Kiev or Minsk happening but I can see them walking into a few Third Battles of Kharkov.

I can too, primarily due to flaws in how their formations are structured, namely that they were too rigid and inflexible for a proper mechanized assault. I can also see them underestimating how fanatical the Nazis would actually be in the scenario the Nazis would be facing and running into several buzzsaws from that. But this is more the Battle of Rhzev than Third (or especially Second) Kharkov, and the Germans will never win a war with Rhzevs. Especially not in this scenario, instead this gives them an overland Pacific war: start with a bang, end with a whimper.

 

[Flayer]

The Soviet army will have to deal with the same partisan and logistical issues that Germany had. Their morale and determination will also be nowhere near the same as IOTL because they aren't fighting the Germans who've raped and butchered half their country.

 

[Snake Featherston]

The Soviet army will have to deal with the same partisan and logistical issues that Germany had. Their morale and determination will also be nowhere near the same as IOTL because they aren't fighting the Germans who've raped and butchered half their country.

Not the same kind, the Germans were not very good at setting up irregular warfare and are prepared to fight the wrong kind of conventional warfare. Small Axis states overrun by *this* Red Army will crack in far less time and force the Germans into a cycle of being able to deal some harm to the Soviets in the right situation in purely German-Soviet fighting but when the Soviets rip the heart out of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, and the like, well.....

 

[Julian]

1944 army without combat experience, without any of the developments in tactics they gained fighting the Germans, and without the bad generals being weeded out and good ones promoted as completely as they were by war. Also, no Lend-Lease aid for their logistics.

A major component of Timoshenko's reforms was the graduation of a new, professional, and experienced officer corps which would have filled out the Red Army's ranks and replaced those lost during the Purges. Many shakeups were due in the high command during this period. Further, much of the Red Army's tactics in 1943 and 1944 were actually Timoshenko's reforms adopted ad hoc into the Red Army between 1941 and 1943. There were some changes to contend with new strategic realities, but most of the basic changes he got approved were those that vastly improved the Red Army tactically later in the war.

I can too, primarily due to flaws in how their formations are structured, namely that they were too rigid and inflexible for a proper mechanized assault. I can also see them underestimating how fanatical the Nazis would actually be in the scenario the Nazis would be facing and running into several buzz saws from that. But this is more the Battle of Rhzev than Third (or especially Second) Kharkov, and the Germans will never win a war with Rhzevs. Especially not in this scenario, instead this gives them an overland Pacific war: start with a bang, end with a whimper.

I can't see a Rzhev coming about. Rzhev was prompted by a variety of factors, including only partial implementation of the Timoshenko reforms, a lack of a real officer corps, and generally poor quality men and equipment. This was further caused by the massive losses of Barbarossa, which set back Timoshenko's reforms by several years. Without that the Red Army will be better disciplined and able to operate more smoothly, especially in cooperation between artillery, infantry, and armor.

The Soviet army will have to deal with the same partisan and logistical issues that Germany had. Their morale and determination will also be nowhere near the same as IOTL because they aren't fighting the Germans who've raped and butchered half their country.

Partisans? Definitely not. The Soviets were far more effective at rounding up possible resistance groups and organizations than the Nazis. Plus they'll be occupying lands which are 1. Geographically constrained and 2. Less populated than the Soviet Union and 3. Population is much more concentrated in urban centers. This leads to the easy suppression of dissidents. Logistics will certainly be a problem but unlike the Germans the Soviets will be able to easily secure they rear areas which will facilitate rapid conversion of rail lines. Their logistic planning will also be much better; the Winter War taught them the merits of proper supply organization. I disagree that motivation will be that much less than IOTL; from day 1 of Barbarossa the Soviets resisted ferociously and showed no mercy to any German prisoners taken. This is well before shit really went down. The Red Army was quickly becoming a disciplined force, both fear, training, and simple indoctrination.